Monday, January 30, 2006

Everybody's Doin' It

Oscar predictions for the "big 8."

Because I have to.

If you want more thorough analysis (including predictions in the categories I haven't bothered to do research on), click on the In Contention link off to your right. The good Dr. Tapley will set you straight.

Anyway. . .

Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Walk the Line
runner-up: Munich

Not a BAD line-up, per se, but not one that excites me a whole lot, even if it features two films in my top ten, plus another in my top 20 and another in my top 30 (I didn't care for Crash at all). If Munich makes it in, I like it that much better.

George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Fernando Meirelles, The Constant Gardener
Bennett Miller, Capote
Steven Spielberg, Munich
r/u: Paul Haggis, Crash

A slightly more interesting line-up. I'd love to stick David Cronenberg in there, but I won't.

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terrence Howard, Hustle and Flow
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Straithairn, Good Night, and Good Luck
r/u: Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man

I'm not gutsy like Tapley, so I won't predict a David Straithairn snub. I probably should though. Howard is also a huge risk on my part, but it's a solid performance and the man has been working L.A.

Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
r/u: Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha

This is maybe the worst category in years. I thought perhaps Naomi Watts' performance in King Kong could save it (or Rachel Weisz in Constant Gardener), but the film's box office was disappointing, so her hopes faded. As it is, they just needed to find four names to join Witherspoon on the list.

Supporting Actor
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt, A History of Violence
r/u: Terrence Howard, Crash

One never knows. Crash could take three nominations in this category. I really want to not predict Gyllenhaal, but I know it will happen. Another pretty uninteresting category all around.

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Junebug
Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Catherine Keener, Capote
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
r/u: Frances McDormand, North Country

This and actor are probably the most interesting categories to my mind. Weisz will probably win since her performance is arguably a leading one. But what are you gonna do?

Original Screenplay
The 40-Year-Old Virgin
Good Night and Good Luck
Match Point
The Squid and the Whale
r/u: Syriana

EDIT: I've decided to put The 40-year-old Virgin in here because I thought it might get nominated in August and I still do. I'm making this change at 11:51 PST, 1/30/06.

Syriana is the REAL wild card here. The Academy JUST announced it to be original a few weeks ago. If not enough people got the memo, it won't get in.

Adapted Screenplay
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Walk the Line
r/u: A History of Violence

A quite strong category, all things considered. I think Walk the Line gets in as a way to honor its director James Mangold. Granted, the various branches of the Academy don't have a hive mind, but this is what I have decided anyway.

Happy predicting!

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