Sunday, March 05, 2006

Who will win?

My mom wants to know who's going to win at the Oscars. So here you go.

If you want more specific commentary, again, Kris Tapley is your man. And, if you go there, you'll get to see lovely photos of the red carpet and the setup at the Kodak Theatre before its pureness is sullied by the likes of George Clooney and Kevin O'Connell.

See a complete list of nominees here.

Post YOUR predictions in the comments and we'll have an ersatz Oscar pool!

Best Picture:

Win: Brokeback Mountain
Place: Crash
Show: Capote

Capote seems like a remote shot, but the other three are ALL remote shots, and I think Capote has the most vociferous cult of the other three. But these are five cult nominees, to one degree or another.

Best Director:

Win: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Place: George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Show: Steven Spielberg, Munich

Lee has this all wrapped up. Anyone else would be a major surprise.

Best Actor:

Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Place: Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Show: Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow

Conventional wisdom has Joaquin Phoenix in third, but Howard has been WORKING L.A. It won't get him an Oscar (this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the top two), but it will make him a movie star. Hoffman is WAY out in front, but Ledger is a solid second place.

Best Actress:

Win: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Place: Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Show: Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents

This is the worst category in YEARS. Witherspoon and Keira Knightley gave the only performances I could stand. Thankfully, Witherspoon is going to win. Huffman has been campaigning hard, but I think Hollywood wants to add to its list of starlets by giving it to Witherspoon. Still, a LOT of people are banking on Huffman. We'll see.

Best Supporting Actor:

Win: George Clooney, Syriana
Place: Matt Dillon, Crash
Show: Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man

The biggest race of the night. Any one of these three could win. So could Jake Gyllenhaal. The only one who's completely out is William Hurt. Clooney wins for having a heck of a year and fattening up for Syriana.

Best Supporting Actress:

Win: Amy Adams, Junebug
Place: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Show: Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

Absolutely, ABSOLUTELY do not listen to me here. Weisz is way out in front. I just can't imagine anyone seeing Junebug and NOT voting for Adams. That said, the film IS underseen. Catherine Keener is also in the hunt here.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Win: Brokeback Mountain
Place: Capote
Show: Munich

Brokeback is WAY out in front. Don't bet on anything else.

Best Original Screenplay:

Win: Crash
Place: Good Night, and Good Luck
Show: Match Point

Crash is WAY out in front. Same deal. The screenplays are the two most locked awards of the night. If either loses, a backlash is afoot against the film in question.

Best Foreign Film:

Win: Tsotsi
Place: Sophie Scholl - The Final Days
Show: Paradise Now

Despite the hubbub surrounding it, Paradise Now isn't much of a frontrunner. Tsotsi wins for following the Andrew O'Hehir (a Salon.com critic) formula for Oscar success: Start as odd and foreign as possible, then gradually adhere to a Hollywood formula. Don't count out Joyeux Noel either.

Best Documentary Feature

Win: March of the Penguins
Place: Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
Show: Murderball

The penguins win for proving you don't have to have Michael Moore to be a huge documentary hit.

Best Animated Feature

Win: Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Place: Tim Burton's Corpse Bride
Show: Howl's Moving Castle

The winner of the Annie (from the animation guild) for best animated feature has always won this award too. So say hi to Wallace and Gromit.

Best Cinematography

Win: Brokeback Mountain
Place: Good Night, and Good Luck
Show: Memoirs of a Geisha

I think the top two are closer than most people think, but the film with the most sweeping vistas tends to win here, and that describes the achingly gorgeous Brokeback to a T.

Best Editing

Win: Crash
Place: The Constant Gardener
Show: Munich

Crash had the most visible editing (cutting between so many stories like it did), but Gardener could sneak in here.

Best Art Direction

Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Place: King Kong
Show: Good Night, and Good Luck

Again, Geisha is expected to win, but Kong is probably closer than most think. Still, Geisha had more "real" art direction and less computerized work.

Best Costume Design

Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Place: Walk the Line
Show: Pride & Prejudice

I don't know what to make of this category beyond the fact that Geisha will win. And the costumes WERE right purty.

Best Makeup

Win: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Place: Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
Show: Cinderella Man

I don't have any idea why Cinderella Man is IN this category. Narnia gets a token win for making a lot of money. Even though Star Wars made more, the prequels have been excoriated in Hollywood. I would vote for Sith, but what say do I have?

Best Original Score

Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Place: Brokeback Mountain
Show: The Constant Gardener

John Williams needs another Oscar! Okay, clearly he doesn't. If Brokeback wins here, it may presage a mini-sweep by that film.

Best Original Song

Win: "Travelin' Thru" from Transamerica
Place: "In the Deep" from Crash
Show: "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from Hustle & Flow

"In the Deep" is the presumptive favorite, but I have a feeling about the Oscars love of superstars. Hence, I think, the Dolly Parton tune will win. And never count out the "Wouldn't that be amusing!" votes for "Pimp."

Best Sound Mixing

Win: King Kong
Place: Walk the Line
Show: War of the Worlds

Kong gets to show off in these technical categories. Still, Walk the Line can't be counted out. Ray won last year, after all.

Best Sound Editing

Win: King Kong
Place: War of the Worlds
Show: Memoirs of a Geisha

Why is Geisha even IN this category? Honestly? I think it's Kong in a walk, even though I was more impressed with the sound effects work in War of the Worlds.

Best Visual Effects

Win: King Kong
Place: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Show: War of the Worlds

I thought Narnia had AWFUL effects, but there are quite a few who love the film itself. I'm surprised Star Wars didn't make it here. The only thing standing in the way of a King Kong win is New Zealand fatigue. And, honestly, that's not going to stop it. It was the most groundbreaking work of the year.

Best Documentary Short

Win: The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club
Place: God Sleeps in Rwanda
Show: The Mushroom Club

This is a COMPLETE guess. I think it will be one of those top two, since they have the Oscar friendliest subject matter, but the one film I said had no chance in this category last year went on to win. When it comes to the shorts, nobody knows anything.

Best Short Film - Live Action

Win: Ausreisser (The Runaway)
Place: Cashback
Show: Six Shooter

Again, a complete guess. I didn't get a chance to check these out in L.A. or on iTunes, so here's hoping the one everyone is predicting wins.

Best Short Film - Animated

Win: The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation
Place: One Man Band
Show: 9

This award has been going to deeply personal films lately, hence my choice. Before that, it went to screwy comedies, hence my second-place choice. But don't count out the appeal of 9, which was made by a UCLA student or something.

And what do I think SHOULD win (outside of the shorts categories)?

Well. . .if I had a ballot, I would mark the following. . .

Picture: Munich (r/u Capote)
Director: Steven Spielberg, Munich (r/u Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain)
Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote (r/u Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow)
Actress: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line (r/u Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice)
Supporting Actor: William Hurt, A History of Violence (r/u George Clooney, Syriana)
Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, Junebug (r/u Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener)
Adapted Screenplay: Munich (r/u A History of Violence)
Original Screenplay: The Squid and the Whale (r/u I wouldn't have a runner-up, actually. I don't like any of the others enough to vote for it.)
Foreign Film: Tsotsi (r/u Paradise Now)
Documentary Feature: Murderball (r/u Darwin's Nightmare)
Animated Feature: Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (r/u Howl's Moving Castle)
Cinematography: Good Night, and Good Luck (r/u Brokeback Mountain)
Editing: Munich (r/u The Constant Gardener)
Art Direction: King Kong (r/u Pride & Prejudice)
Costume Design: Pride & Prejudice (r/u Walk the Line)
Makeup: Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (r/u The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe)
Original Score: Brokeback Mountain (r/u Munich)
Original Song: "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from Hustle & Flow (r/u "Travelin' Thru" from Transamerica)
Sound Mixing: King Kong (r/u War of the Worlds)
Sound Editing: War of the Worlds (r/u King Kong)
Visual Effects: King Kong (r/u War of the Worlds)

Post your woulda, coulda, shoulda predictions in the comments second and have a happy Oscar day!

1 comment:

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